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Small surveys can give reliable results
04 Nov 2018 (31 views)

What is the number of votes that gives a reliable indicator?

My answer is 25.

Here is an example. I asked the question - will you vote for Lee Hsien Yang if he stands in your constituency.

After 25 votes, I got the answer - 80% yes, 20% no.

When it reached 100 votes, the proportion is still the same - 80% yes, 20% no, with a margin of difference of maybe 2%.

I have observed this pattern for many of the Facebook polls that I have taken.

The statistician will state that a sample size of 25 is quite reliable for this kind of yes/no poll.

Many of the surveys in The Wisdom of the Crowd have more than 50 votes. I believe that the results are quite reliable.

There will be some bias if the questions tend to be political and a large proportion of the voters are pro or anti govt.

But for non political issues, the results are quite reliable.



Small surveys can give reliable results
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What is the number of votes that gives a reliable indicator?

My answer is 25.

Here is an example. I asked the question - will you vote for Lee Hsien Yang if he stands in your constituency.

After 25 votes, I got the answer - 80% yes, 20% no.

When it reached 100 votes, the proportion is still the same - 80% yes, 20% no, with a margin of difference of maybe 2%.

I have observed this pattern for many of the Facebook polls that I have taken.

The statistician will state that a sample size of 25 is quite reliable for this kind of yes/no poll.

Many of the surveys in The Wisdom of the Crowd have more than 50 votes. I believe that the results are quite reliable.

There will be some bias if the questions tend to be political and a large proportion of the voters are pro or anti govt.

But for non political issues, the results are quite reliable.