This
insurance works well in good times. Only a small proportion of
borrowers default, due to their personal circumstances such as
loss of employment or severe illness. It can be covered by the
premiums paid by the other borrowers.
During an
economic downturn, when many people loss their jobs at the
same time and property values drop severely, it can cause a big
problem for the mortgage insurers.
This
happened in Europe in the early 1990s. Many insurance companies
that provided this type of insurance faced large losses. They
had to be re-capitalised or sold to other owners.
In more
recent times, we have the problems caused by the sub-prime
mortgages in America. The mortgages were issued to sub-prime
borrowers to generate a high return to the lender. Funds were
raised through the credit market in the form of asset backed
securities, with the credit risks being guaranteed by
the lending institution. Several of the lenders were not
sufficiently capitalised to take the losses caused by the
downturn in the housing market.
Considering
the risks, is it a good practice to encourage mortgage insurance
as a way to transfer or spread the risks?
Here is a
surprise. I think that it is a good idea. But it has to come
with certain caveats.
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The
mortgage insurer must have expertise in the assessment of
the risks. They should be familiar with the property market,
economic conditions and lending practices in Singapore. In
particular, they have to know the rules regarding the use of
Central Provident Fund savings to pay the installments under
the mortgages.
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The
mortgage insurer should be required to retain the major
share of the risk, and not be allowed to transfer the risk
to the credit market through securitisation or other means.
This is to avoid the moral hazard.
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The
mortgage insurer should have sufficient capital to allow
them to ride over several years of an economic downturn.
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The
mortgage insurer should be required to use sufficient
actuarial expertise to measure the potential losses and to
charge an adequate premium to cover the risk. They should
avoid excessive competition leading to inadequate pricing.
There is a
significant advantage of the in the mortgage insurance scheme,
especially for the handling of the more risky loans.
Lenders,
who are hungry for business, may be tempted to lower their
credit assessment standards to win a large market share.
If they are required to buy mortgage insurance, the assessment
is transferred to a professional mortgage insurer, which can
assess the risk independently of the lending. This may impose
some discipline on the lending institution.